American intelligence analysts and officials said Friday that they expected Iran to strike several targets in Israel in the next few days in retaliation for an Israeli bombing of the Syrian capital on April 1 that killed several senior Iranian commanders .
The United States, Israel’s main ally, has military forces in several locations in the Middle East. However, Iran is not expected to target them to avoid direct conflict with the United States, according to U.S. and Iranian officials who spoke anonymously about intelligence gathered on the expected attacks and to discuss them publicly were not authorized.
Any Iranian attack inside Israel would be a turning point in the decades-long hostilities between the two nations and would most likely open a new, explosive chapter in the region. Israel and Iran do not have direct channels of communication, making it much more likely that each side could misjudge the other’s intentions. And an Iranian attack would increase the risk of a larger conflict that could involve several countries, including the United States.
In remarks to reporters on Friday, President Biden said his message to Iran regarding possible military action against Israel would be: “Don’t do it.”
“We are dedicated to the defense of Israel,” he added. “We will support Israel. We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed.”
In anticipation of an Iranian attack, several countries, including the United States, have issued new guidelines for their citizens to travel in Israel and the surrounding region. The Israeli military said its forces were on high alert.
The US State Department banned its employees from traveling to large parts of Israel on Thursday. This is the first time the US government has restricted the movement of its employees in this way since the war in Gaza began more than six months ago.
On Thursday, Britain told its citizens that they should “consider leaving Israel and the Palestinian territories” “when it is safe to do so.” On Friday, India asked its citizens “not to travel to Iran or Israel until further notice.” And France discouraged people from traveling to Israel, Iran or Lebanon and evacuated the families of French diplomats from Iran.
Details about Iran’s possible attack on Israel are being kept top secret, but American and Israeli officials believe it could involve drones and missiles. Iran has the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones in the Middle East, including cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, experts say, as well as short- and long-range ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers (about 1,250 miles). .
Iran also has a large inventory of drones that have a range of about 1,200 to 1,550 miles and are capable of flying low to evade radar.
The exact form of an attack on Israel, the nature of the targets and the exact timing remain unclear.
The top American military commander for the Middle East, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, traveled to Israel this week to coordinate a response in the event of an attack by Iran, U.S. officials said.
“Our enemies believe they will divide Israel and the United States,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in a statement Friday after a meeting with Gen. Kurilla. “They connect us and strengthen the relationship between us.”
If Iran attacks, he added, “we will know how to respond.”
On Thursday, Israeli military chief spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the armed forces were “highly vigilant and prepared” for any action by Iran.
Iran has publicly and repeatedly vowed revenge for the April 1 airstrike on its embassy complex in the Syrian capital Damascus, which killed three generals and four officers from its elite Quds Force, an arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
But analysts say Iranian leaders want to tailor their response so that it is large enough to send a message at home and abroad that Iran is not powerless in the face of conflict, but not so large that it becomes one full-blown war with Israel comes or triggers an American attack.
In the early months of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Iran-backed militias regularly attacked U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. But after a drone strike in Jordan killed three Americans in January and the United States launched retaliatory strikes, Iran halted its proxies’ attacks out of fear of a stronger U.S. response.
Despite the clashes and hostile rhetoric, both Iranian and U.S. leaders have made it clear they want to avoid all-out war.
John F. Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, told reporters on Friday: “We are certainly aware of, and are doing, a very public and, in our view, very credible threat from Iran in terms of possible attacks on Israel.” “We are in constant communication with our Israeli colleagues to ensure that they can defend themselves against such attacks.”
How Israel would respond to an Iranian attack on its soil is unclear. The Israeli military “continues to closely monitor what is happening in Iran and in various areas,” Herzi Halevi, chief of the Israeli General Staff, said in a statement on Friday. He added: “Our armed forces are prepared and ready at any time and for any scenario.”
Iran believes it can gain international support for a retaliatory strike by drawing attention to the attack on its embassy complex and arguing that it was merely self-defense, Iranian officials said.
International law generally treats embassies and consulates as exempt from attack. However, Israeli officials have argued that the building they destroyed was diplomatic in name only and was being used as a Revolutionary Guard base, as evidenced by the senior commanders who were meeting there when they were killed.
A Revolutionary Guard strategist said Iran wants to exploit the growing rift between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Biden over Israel’s conduct of the war against Hamas – not unite them in hostility towards Iran.
In addition to criticizing the level of death and destruction by Israeli forces in Gaza, the Biden administration has expressed fears that increasing clashes on Israel’s northern borders, particularly with Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah, could escalate into a larger regional war.
In an apparent response to international pressure, including from the United States, to do more to alleviate hunger and deprivation caused by the war in Gaza, the Israeli military said Friday it had begun sending humanitarian aid trucks across the north new crossing to enter the Gaza Strip.
The military did not provide details on the location of the new crossing and it remained unclear how many trucks had crossed it, which aid organization they belonged to and when the crossing might be opened to wider use.
Jamie McGoldrick, a senior U.N. aid official in Jerusalem, said U.N. officials planned to go to the border crossing on Saturday to inspect it. He said the crossing would be a significant improvement “if it is possible at scale and not just temporary.”
After Israeli attacks killed seven aid workers on April 1, Mr. Biden told Mr. Netanyahu by telephone that the United States could withhold military support for Israel if it did not do more to protect civilians and provide adequate care for Palestinian civilians ensure.
Mr. Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, vowed on Wednesday to “flood Gaza with aid” and said he expected 500 aid trucks to eventually enter the enclave every day. UN figures show that an average of around 110 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip every day since the war began on October 7.
Mr. Gallant also said Israel would soon open the port of Ashdod, an Israeli city north of Gaza, to accept aid, without giving a time frame.
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2024-04-12 19:26:38
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