Is President Biden winning in the polls? There have been signs of this since his State of the Union address last month, and a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday morning is the latest indication.
Donald J. Trump led Mr. Biden among likely voters nationwide by one percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent. This represents a modest improvement for the president since February, when Mr. Trump led our poll of likely voters by four points.
You can’t exactly call a one-point deficit a “Biden comeback,” but the result adds to the growing list of polls showing him moving higher over the last month.
To date, 16 national pollsters (of varying quality) have conducted pre- and post-State of the Union polls. On average, Mr. Biden is doing about 1.4 points better in the post-State of the Union polls than in previous polls from the same pollsters.
A 1.4-point shift in poll numbers wouldn’t normally warrant much attention. It is so small that even if it is real, it may not last. But given the last six months – and the doubts some Democrats have about Mr Biden’s candidacy – this is of greater importance.
Mr Trump has consistently led in the polls since October, although a rising stock market and rising consumer confidence appeared to be setting the stage for a Biden comeback. The president’s inability to capitalize on an improving economy against a candidate accused of multiple federal crimes was a major reason for pessimism about his chances. There seemed to be a possibility that his age (81) was disqualifying for many voters, or that much of the country had even written him off.
The movement in Mr. Biden’s direction over the last month is small, but it may be just enough to suggest that he is beginning to benefit from improving political conditions. The last month was full of events and news that seemed potentially favorable for him:
The primaries are over. The reality of a rematch between Trump and Biden could be emerging and potentially help Mr. Biden.
The State of the Union helped ease Democrats’ concerns about his age, which dominated political discussion in February.
Abortion is in the news again. In recent weeks, a state court ruling allowed Florida’s six-week abortion ban to soon take effect, and Arizona’s 19th-century ban was revived. As calls for the Times/Siena poll grew this week, Google searches on abortion reached their highest level since the 2022 midterm elections.
The Biden campaign is underway. As part of the State of the Union, the campaign launched an aggressive and largely uncontested initial assault in the contested states, both on the ground and in the air.
Consumer sentiment has increased. This was already true in February, but it is plausible to expect a lag between improved economic conditions and political gains for Mr. Biden.
But despite these positive trends, Mr Biden is still trailing in the polls. His approval ratings remain in the upper 30s, and only 41 percent say they have a favorable opinion of the president – far fewer than four years ago and lower than voters’ views of Mr. Trump today. Voters still believe the economy is bad and disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy by a margin of nearly two to one.
But if the last month had not helped Mr. Biden at all, doubts about his candidacy would have only grown. Instead, a slight change in behavior makes it easier to think about further gains that lie ahead.
Seven months before the election, that is not unrealistic, even if it is by no means certain. Many voters are still not there – particularly the less engaged, young and non-white voters who are currently driving Mr Trump’s strength in the polls.
On paper, an incumbent president with a healthy economy should be favored to win.
You can read our full survey report here.
What about Kennedy?
We did not list Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an option in the presidential campaign. He’s on the ballot in very few states, and adding him makes it harder to compare our results with previous polls.
However, this could easily be the last time he is left out of a Times/Siena poll. On the one hand, he could succeed in achieving better access to the ballot papers in the coming weeks. Second, it will be less important to compare our polls with our 2023 polls and more important to enable a later comparison with our polls in the fall, when Mr. Kennedy hopes to be on the ballot everywhere by then.
With this possibility in mind, we took a small interim step: We allowed the interviewer to record when respondents said they supported Mr. Kennedy, even if we didn’t list him as an option. Overall, just under 2 percent of respondents said they supported Mr. Kennedy when we asked them about the Biden-Trump duel.
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2024-04-13 09:04:20
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