As Democrats face a presidential campaign against a resurgent and resilient Donald J. Trump and a brutally challenging Senate map, they believe they have an increasingly powerful political weapon: ballot measures protecting abortion rights.
Two key presidential and Senate battlegrounds, Arizona and Nevada, are expected to put such measures squarely before voters. The same goes for other states with top Senate races, including Maryland and possibly Montana. And abortion rights measures are set or could appear on ballots in states like New York, Florida and Nebraska, where contests could help decide whether Democrats win back the House.
Hopeful Democrats – and worried Republicans – are aware that in all seven states that have imposed abortion directly on voters since the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade fell, the abortion rights side won, in both red states like Ohio and Kansas as swing states like Michigan. These measures have sometimes led to increases in liberal voter turnout, which have also helped Democratic candidates win.
In every state where an abortion measure is already or could appear on the 2024 ballot, Democratic candidates, state parties and allied groups are furiously campaigning alongside the ballot initiatives, running ads, helping to donate money to them and introducing the measures Speeches on language after speech.
In Arizona, where Democrats are trying to overhaul the Legislature, the party’s candidates even went so far as to collect signatures for the state’s ballot initiative while knocking on voters’ doors.
“When the abortion petition initiative came out, it was a no-brainer for me to carry it with me,” said Brandy Reese, a Democrat running for the Arizona House of Representatives who said she collected dozens of signatures on the campaign trail. “I introduce myself as a pro-choice candidate, and you can tell people right away by their body language that they’re happy about it.”
The wave of abortion referendums — some of which are not yet officially on the ballot but most of which organizers say have enough signatures to get there — adds new unpredictability to an election season already rocked by Mr. Trump’s criminal cases and taxing questions added about the future of the country’s democracy.
With polls showing a majority of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, the measures could serve as a political life raft at a time when President Biden faces stubbornly low approval ratings and skepticism within his party is. Democrats hope the ballot initiatives will increase voter turnout among core voters such as suburban women, young people and African Americans.
“The ballot initiatives are well-funded and well-organized efforts,” said Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist. “It creates a tremendous sense of energy, not just within the Democratic Party but among voters across the board.”
Party leaders echo that message.
“The momentum is on our side,” Vice President Kamala Harris said at an abortion rights event in Jacksonville, Florida, on Wednesday. “Just think about it: every time since Roe was overturned, reproductive freedom has been on the ballot, the people of America have voted for freedom.”
Beyond electoral politics, ballot initiatives on abortion have generated significant interest and turnout because of their direct impact on voters’ lives. In Florida, for example, a recent ban on nearly all abortions in the state has cut off a key access point to patients throughout the Southeast. In Arizona, lawmakers this week lifted a near-total abortion ban — but the state is now poised to enforce a 15-week ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Doctors also expressed concerns about criminal sanctions under the bans.
“The fear of this is just devastating,” said Mona Mangat, CEO of the Committee to Protect Health Care, an advocacy group that supports ballot initiatives in several states. “It will have devastating consequences for doctors and for patients.”
Ms. Mangat said the restrictions could impact whether doctors want to move to those states to practice medicine or participate in residency programs.
In Nevada, abortion is legal within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. There, organizers are collecting signatures to place an amendment on the ballot that would enshrine a right to abortion in the state constitution. Key Democrats in the state, including Sen. Jacky Rosen, who faces a tough re-election fight, have signed the petition.
Rep. Dina Titus, another Nevada Democrat, said in an interview that the change would still motivate voters, particularly young people, to turn out even without the driving force to lift sweeping restrictions.
“We’re going to talk about how this is really going to protect women,” Ms. Titus said. “And we’re going to use it to get young women and young people in general to vote because they’re suddenly realizing that something they took for granted isn’t going to be available.”
Republican candidates and their allies appear unwilling to directly fight ballot measures protecting abortion rights, although some GOP leaders have spoken out against them. In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine recorded a video last year opposing the state’s initiative, and in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the current ballot measure was too broad. “It is completely unacceptable to destroy parental consent for minors,” he said at an event last month.
Some Republicans openly fear that restrictive measures like Florida’s could play into Democrats’ hands, given how abortion referendums have fared in recent cycles.
“Kansas and Ohio, to me, are what everyone should pay attention to,” said Vicki Lopez, a state representative from Miami who was among the few Republican lawmakers to vote against Florida’s six-week ban. Voters will now decide in November whether to add a right to abortion to the state constitution on a question known as Amendment 4. “This will be a test.”
But Ms. Lopez added that it would be a mistake to assume that “everyone who votes for Amendment 4 will then actually vote for Biden.”
Regardless, Democrats believe they have the advantage. In a memo last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wrote that “reproductive freedom will remain a driving issue for voters this November” and that the group will “ensure House Republicans’ efforts to ban abortion nationwide.” , will be at the forefront of voters’ minds.” the polls.”
The DCCC said it has identified 18 contested House seats in states where abortion measures are likely to be on the ballot. Republicans are trying to protect a slim majority in the House of Representatives.
Money for the ballot measure poured in from both large liberal groups and small donors. Some so-called dark money organizations, whose donors are not disclosed, have donated millions, including the Open Society Policy Center, the Sixteen Thirty Fund and the Fairness Project. Other advocacy groups such as Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union have also contributed seven figures.
Think Big America, an abortion rights group founded by Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, has spent heavily to support abortion initiatives. After losing $1 million in Ohio last year, it has already spent $1 million in Arizona and Nevada and a so-called “quick investment” in Montana, where the issue is not yet on the November ballot $500,000 made.
“Not only does this have the power to drive out Democrats, but it also ensures that people who are still on the fence – swing voters, independents, persuadable voters – switch to the side that has long believed in reproductive freedom,” said Michael Ollen, executive director of Think Big America.
In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs has directed her well-funded state political action committee, Arizona Communities United, to focus heavily on the ballot initiative.
Ms. Hobbs, who won narrow Republican majorities in the House in her first two years in office, has made switching both chambers a key goal for 2024, and she sees the ballot measure as a key part of that effort.
In Nevada, the Biden campaign invited ballot initiative organizers to collect signatures at events with Jill Biden and Ms. Harris.
When Ms. Harris gave a speech in the state last month, she thanked signature collectors in the audience. They responded by holding up their clipboards and cheering.
“We will win this ballot initiative,” the vice president said. “And Joe Biden and I are going back to the White House.”
Patricia Mazzei contributed reporting.
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2024-05-02 14:40:23
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