Democrats are beginning to dream that President Biden can take North Carolina away from Donald J. Trump in November.
They are less confident that Mr. Biden can hold Georgia.
The two southern battlegrounds represent a tricky strategic calculation for Mr. Biden’s campaign as it ramps up and decides where to direct its money, advertising and foot soldiers on the political map. The subtle, early tension is leading to no small amount of jealousy among Mr. Biden’s Democratic allies in every state as they vie for money and attention.
“I would definitely support North Carolina over Georgia in the Biden campaign,” Roy Cooper, the governor of the Tar Heel state, said in a recent interview, pointing out that Mr. Biden’s defeat there was by just one percentage point in 2020 his own was the closest in the nation. “Of course I’m a little biased. You will have to make these decisions. I think Georgia is still an extremely important state for the president and can help him stand out from the top.”
North Carolina appears to be a more attractive destination this year, even though no Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since 2008. But Republicans recently nominated a candidate for governor with a well-documented history of anti-Semitic statements, staunch opposition to abortion and anti-LGBTQ views, and Democrats hope he will drag Republicans down the aisle in Mr. Biden’s favor.
Georgia now looks a little less enticing, despite a narrow Biden victory there in 2020 that gave Democrats new winning ambitions in the South. This year, Mr. Biden ran for the Senate alongside two Democratic candidates vying for control of the chamber, prompting both die-hard Democrats and casual voters to head to the polls. There is no major campaign to help Mr. Biden this year, and liberal organizers in the state have warned of money problems and waning grassroots energy.
Racial diversity is increasing in both Sun Belt states, a demographic shift that benefits Democrats. But growing faith in Democrats in North Carolina and pessimism in Georgia show the party is particularly reliant on down-ballot elections this year to boost turnout as Mr Biden struggles with paltry approval ratings. It’s possible he loses both states, with polls showing Trump ahead in both states.
The campaign of Mr. Biden and his allies has poured more money into Georgia, spending nearly $24 million on television advertising there, compared with more than $5.6 million in North Carolina. But the campaign’s staffing is more robust in North Carolina, which announced in January the hiring of three full-time staffers, including a campaign manager and senior advisory positions. In Georgia, the campaign has so far hired just one staffer, a senior adviser, with the election less than eight months away.
“As a Georgian, it’s frustrating because we have so much invested in Georgia,” said Erick Allen, the former chairman of the Cobb County Democratic Party who is now running for a seat on the county commission. “But I understand, because when you think about the 2020 election, the momentum that Biden was able to capitalize on here was also due to the energy of the national elections,” he said, referring to the Senate campaigns of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
Mr Allen added: “You need that extra energy across the country to really make a game. And that’s not happening in Georgia this cycle.”
Mr. Biden’s campaign has not written off Georgia, maintaining that it remains a top priority. The president visited the state on Saturday for a rally in Atlanta, a week after Jill Biden, the first lady, hosted an event there. Vice President Kamala Harris has visited the state twice this year and 11 times since her election. A number of surrogates, including Doug Emhoff, Ms. Harris’ husband, and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, have passed through Georgia in recent weeks.
“The president is in the right place,” Mr. Warnock told Democrats in Atlanta before Mr. Biden’s speech on Saturday. “Because we know the road to the White House runs through Georgia.”
Several top campaign aides, including Quentin Fulks, Mr. Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager, and Michael Tyler, his communications director, are also from Georgia. Mr. Fulks said in an interview that both North Carolina and Georgia, which each offer 16 electoral votes, were “at the top of the priority list.”
“President Biden was at the top of the list in 2020, and he will be at the top of the list again in 2024, regardless of which state you look at,” he said, adding that the campaign will be “more robust.” would presence” in Georgia this month. “I see a pretty good path to Georgia, but our campaign is under no illusions. We have to get in there, we have to do the work, we have to be present there.”
But cautious Democrats in Georgia point to delays in hiring full-time local staff and a lack of voter enthusiasm and say that unless Mr. Biden’s campaign redoubles its efforts, he will win a state he won by fewer than 12,000 votes could, may not have been able to hold years before.
“The fact is, Georgia is still in the game, and of course we want to preserve Georgia,” said Van Johnson, the mayor of Savannah. “But it doesn’t happen by osmosis. This is done through targeted investments.”
He added: “North Carolina is important. There’s a governor’s race there – that’s important. But you can’t cut off your right hand and help your left hand. You need both.”
Democrats in both states often discuss the sensitive intra-party issue diplomatically. Gov. Cooper said he has urged Mr. Biden to consider North Carolina as a top target and that it ranks “very high” on the list of battleground states the campaign believes it can win.
And while he was careful to mention that Georgia was also important, he pointed out that Mr. Biden would not have the advantage of running alongside a strong Senate candidate from the state.
“You don’t have Raphael Warnock on the ballot in 2024,” he said.
Before Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, Democrats had trailed in the state in every presidential election cycle since 1976. They have been far more successful at the state level, winning the governor’s race in seven of the last eight campaign cycles. The last two Senate races in the state, in 2022 and 2020, were close, with the Republican candidate winning by less than four points each time.
Prominent Democratic groups are planning to target North Carolina, particularly because of the involvement of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor. His inflammatory comments and politically toxic positions stand out even in a party that has fielded many flawed candidates for top office in recent years.
Mr. Robinson has, among other things, quoted Hitler on Facebook, advocated for Holocaust denial, and called “transgenderism” and “homosexuality” “filth.” He has also expressed support for a six-week abortion ban, a stance Democrats have already adopted.
Pat Dennis, the president of American Bridge 21st Century, a liberal group that studies the history of Republican candidates, said Mr. Robinson was a “dream” for opposition researchers, adding that candidates like him hold right-wing views on abortion , “ Really help define the race in the suburbs, where I think North Carolina will make the difference between winning and losing.”
Mr. Robinson’s campaign rejected Democrats’ plans to highlight his past offensive comments and sought to link Josh Stein, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate and the state’s attorney general, to Mr. Biden.
“Joe Biden, Josh Stein and the Democrats are so desperate to distract voters from their massive mistakes like uncontrolled illegal immigration, crippling inflation and more that they tirelessly spread lies to defame Mark Robinson rather than about the real issues “This campaign,” Mike Lonergan, Mr. Robinson’s communications director, said in a statement.
Demographic trends also explain why Mr. Biden would expand his political map to North Carolina, the ninth-most populous state in the country.
North Carolina’s population growth continues to outpace that of the rest of the country, and much of it is led by people of color. This boom was even more pronounced in cities: According to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the Charlotte and Raleigh areas were among the top 10 metropolitan areas nationwide with the highest population growth. Many of the new residents come from blue states like New York and California.
Marc Farinella, the North Carolina state director for Obama’s 2008 campaign, said that at this point in the race, Mr. Biden had “plausible” arguments for winning both Southern states.
During Obama’s first campaign, when Georgia was more reliably red, senior advisers who saw no path forward there shifted their resources to North Carolina and other states that appeared easier to win just weeks before the election.
“You have a broad view, and as we get closer to Election Day, your view narrows,” Mr. Farinella said.
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2024-03-11 16:35:35
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