The war in Ukraine has “quietly eroded” Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s power, CIA Director William J. Burns wrote in an essay published Tuesday.
While Putin’s grip on power is unlikely to wane soon, Burns wrote in Foreign Affairs, discontent has “corroded the Russian leadership and people” and allowed the CIA to recruit more spies.
The agency has filmed a series of videos aimed at recruiting Russian officials. The latest version, released last week, encourages Russians to securely provide information to the CIA through a secure browser on the Dark Web. The latest video appeals to their anger over corruption in the Russian government.
While the U.S. government won’t say how many spies were recruited with the videos, officials said the agency wouldn’t have pushed them further on Telegram and YouTube if they hadn’t been effective. Mr. Burns echoed this sentiment in his article.
“This underlying dissatisfaction creates a unique recruiting opportunity for the CIA,” he wrote. “We won’t let it go to waste.”
Part of Mr. Putin’s weakness stems from his handling of last year’s mutiny by members of Russia’s most powerful mercenary group. He appeared “distanced and indecisive” in the face of the mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Mr. Burns wrote.
Mr. Burns wrote that Mr. Putin “finally settled his score with Prigozhin,” a reference to the mercenary leader’s death in a suspicious plane crash. Still, the criticism of the Russian leadership that Mr. Prigozhin expressed to the Russian people “will not go away anytime soon,” Mr. Burns wrote.
“For many in the Russian elite, the question was not so much whether the emperor was not wearing clothes, but rather why it took him so long to get dressed,” Burns said.
Russia has rebuilt its military-industrial production, but its economy has been badly hurt by the war, he said. And in the long term, Russia “seals” its fate of being a vassal of China and dependent on Beijing for trade and technology.
Ukraine faces challenges in war but has achieved dramatic results. Russia’s efforts to modernize its military were “destroyed” and 315,000 Russians were killed or wounded, Mr. Burns wrote.
Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses, although Mr Burns did not address this directly. U.S. officials have struggled to estimate exactly how many people have lost their lives in Ukraine.
Mr Putin’s strategy is to further wear down Ukraine and try to outlast Western support. But Ukraine, Mr. Burns wrote, could “break through Putin’s arrogance” by carrying out attacks deeper behind the battlefield’s hardened front lines. In the past, U.S. officials had feared that Ukraine’s attacks could lead to escalation by Russia, perhaps even by conducting a nuclear test as a warning to Ukraine and the West.
Mr Burns acknowledged that concerns about nuclear escalation were legitimate but suggested they should not be exaggerated.
“Putin could engage in nuclear saber rattling again, and it would be foolish to completely rule out risks of escalation,” he wrote. “But it would be just as stupid to allow yourself to be unnecessarily intimidated by them.”
The key to Ukraine’s success, Mr. Burns wrote, is continuing to provide U.S. aid.
Congress is considering a new package of military aid but has become mired in the politics of a border and immigration deal on Capitol Hill.
It would be a big mistake to cut off Ukraine, Mr. Burns wrote.
“Maintaining the flow of arms will put Ukraine in a stronger position when an opportunity for serious negotiations arises,” Burns said. “It offers a chance to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; “Ukraine could protect and rebuild its sovereignty while Russia faces the lasting costs of Putin’s folly.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine ushered in a new era for the CIA, Mr. Burns wrote. He spoke of the early warning of the impending invasion provided by intelligence agencies of the Biden administration, Ukraine and their allies.
But the new era, Burns says, is also about taking advantage of new technologies, including artificial intelligence. These have changed the way the CIA collects information and allowed it to analyze information more quickly and efficiently.
“As much as the world changes, espionage remains an interplay between people and technology,” he wrote.
While there will be secrets that only humans can collect, Burns continued, the CIA must “combine mastery of new technologies with the people-management skills and individual daring that have always been at the heart of our profession.”
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2024-01-31 00:47:14
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