Top officials from at least 10 different governments are trying to forge a series of stunning deals to end the Gaza war and answer the controversial question of how the territory will be governed after the fighting ends.
The narrowest part of the major discussions focuses on achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This would involve exchanging more than 100 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a ceasefire and imprisoning thousands of Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
A second path focuses on transforming the Palestinian Authority, the semi-autonomous body that governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. American and Arab officials are discussing overhauling the agency’s leadership and letting it take control of Gaza after the war, seizing power from Israel and Hamas.
In a third step, American and Saudi officials are urging Israel to agree to the terms of establishing a Palestinian state in return for Saudi Arabia establishing formal ties with Israel for the first time ever.
The demands and results discussed in all three processes are interconnected and the discussions are mostly viewed as long-term perspectives. The war began with the Hamas terror attack on Oct. 7 that killed about 1,200 people, Israeli officials said. The Israeli counterattack in Gaza has left more than 25,000 Palestinians dead, according to health ministry officials there. President Biden has pledged his full support to Israel for the war.
Significant obstacles must be overcome in each series of negotiations. Most notably, the Israeli government says it will not allow full Palestinian sovereignty, casting doubt on whether progress can be made on key fronts. And the Israeli military campaign has not destroyed Hamas, so it is unclear how Hamas could be persuaded to step down while it still controls part of the Gaza Strip.
The United States is the power trying to put it all together. Brett McGurk, the White House’s top Middle East official, was in the region last week, and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with him by phone several times during a trip to Africa, a senior State Department official said. The Biden administration wants to ensure that a senior US official speaks personally with Israeli and Arab leaders at all times.
Officials are throwing around many ideas, most of which are tentative, far-fetched or strongly opposed by some parties. Several controversial proposals are:
Handover of power within the Palestinian Authority from incumbent President Mahmoud Abbas to a new prime minister, with Abbas retaining a ceremonial role.
Sending an Arab peacekeeping force to Gaza to strengthen a new Palestinian government there.
Pass a U.N. Security Council resolution that would recognize the Palestinians’ right to statehood.
Below is a roadmap for the three steps, based on interviews with more than a dozen diplomats and other officials involved in the talks, all of whom spoke anonymously to discuss them more freely.
1. Hostages and a ceasefire
For Americans, an end to the war is the first thing the parties must deliver. These talks are linked to negotiations for the release of more than 100 hostages seized during the Oct. 7 rampage and held by Hamas and its allies. Hamas has said it will not release the hostages until Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire, a stance inconsistent with Israel’s stated goal of fighting until Hamas is removed from Gaza.
Officials from the United States, Israel, Egypt and Qatar are discussing a deal that would halt fighting for up to two months. In November, the parties agreed to a short break that led to Hamas releasing more than 100 hostages.
In one proposal, the hostages would be released gradually over a break of up to 60 days in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel. Some officials have suggested releasing Israeli civilians first in exchange for Palestinian women and minors detained by Israel. Captured Israeli soldiers would then be exchanged for Palestinian militant leaders serving long prison sentences.
Diplomats from various sides hope that more detailed talks could be held during the break on a permanent ceasefire, which could include the withdrawal of most or all Israeli troops, the withdrawal of Hamas leaders from the Strip and a transfer of power to the Palestinian Authority. Currently, Israel and Hamas have each rejected some of these conditions.
To advance these negotiations, William J. Burns, the CIA director, plans to meet in Europe in the coming days with senior Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari counterparts.
Some observers hope that the World Court’s call on Friday for Israel to abide by the genocide convention will provide momentum and political backing to Israeli officials pushing internally for an end to the war.
2. Overhaul of the Palestinian Authority
After Israeli troops withdrew in 2005, the Palestinian Authority briefly controlled Gaza, but Hamas forced it from power two years later. Now some want the authority to return to Gaza and play a role in the postwar government. To make the idea more attractive to Israel, which opposes it, the United States, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are pushing to overhaul authority and change its leadership.
Under its current president, Mahmoud Abbas (88), the authority is widely viewed as corrupt and authoritarian. Mediators are encouraging him to take on a more ceremonial role and hand over executive power to a new prime minister who could oversee Gaza’s reconstruction and reduce corruption. U.S. officials say the goal is to make the agency a more credible steward of a future Palestinian state. Israeli officials also claim that the authority must change its education system, which they say does not promote peace, and stop welfare payments to those convicted of violence against Israelis.
Some critics of Mr. Abbas want to replace him with Salam Fayyad, a Princeton professor credited with modernizing authority during his time as prime minister a decade ago, or Nasser al-Kidwa, a former Palestinian U.N. envoy who worked with Mr. Abbas broke three years ago. But diplomats say Mr. Abbas is pushing for a candidate over whom he has more influence, such as Mohammad Mustafa, his long-time economic adviser.
Some officials have suggested an Arab peacekeeping force to help the new Palestinian leader maintain order in postwar Gaza. Israeli officials reject that idea but have floated the idea of a multinational force under Israeli supervision in the Strip. American diplomats told the Israelis this month that Arab leaders rejected their idea.
3. Saudi normalization with Israel
In the most ambitious series of talks, the Biden administration has revived talks with Saudi Arabia to push the Saudis toward formal diplomatic ties with Israel.
The three-way agreement had been under discussion before the Oct. 7 attacks, and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appeared open to it as the Biden administration called for a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement, a collaboration in a civilian nuclear program and more offered arms sales. Under that agreement, American officials say, the Saudis accepted Israel’s relatively small concessions on the Palestinian issue in return for recognizing Saudi Arabia.
Because of Saudi Arabia’s status as a leading Arab and Muslim nation, this recognition would be a major political victory for American and Israeli leaders.
Since the war began, however, Saudi Arabia and the United States have increased the price on Israel and now insist that Israel commit to a process leading to a Palestinian state and including the Palestinian administration of Gaza. U.S. officials have also told Israelis that Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations would only agree to give money to rebuild Gaza if Israeli leaders committed to a path to Palestinian statehood.
These new conditions were first expressed publicly by Mr. Blinken after he met Prince Mohammed at a desert tent camp in Saudi Arabia this month. He handed it over to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after flying from there to Tel Aviv. He repeated them again in a public lecture in Davos, Switzerland, as did Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser.
Mr. Netanyahu has publicly rejected that proposal and recently pledged to maintain Israel’s military control over the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip. Many Israelis support that, although some U.S. officials question whether it is an open negotiating position by Mr. Netanyahu.
To reassure the Saudis and Palestinians, some officials have proposed a U.N.-backed U.N. Security Council resolution that would enshrine the Palestinians’ right to sovereignty. But the idea still has to catch on.
There is also the question of whether the Biden administration can present Prince Mohammed with a Senate-approved mutual defense treaty. Some Democratic senators have already expressed concerns about such a contract. And the chances that Republican senators will speak out against it are likely to increase as the US presidential election in November approaches.
Patrick Kingsley reported from Abu Dhabi and Edward Wong from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Aaron Boxerman, Adam Rasgon and Isabel Kershner in Jerusalem; Ronen Bergman from Tel Aviv; Farnaz Fassihi from New York; and Julian E. Barnes of Washington.
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2024-01-27 12:29:46
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