When Vice President Kamala Harris flew to Germany for the Munich Security Conference last year, she made an unequivocal promise. “The United States,” she said, “will continue to support Ukraine for as long as necessary.”
When Ms. Harris returned to the same forum and took the same stage last week, her message sounded similar, but there was an important difference. “You have made it clear that Europe will stand with Ukraine,” she told the assembled leaders, “and I will make it clear to President Joe Biden that I will stand with Ukraine.”
This time not the United States, but she and Mr. Biden. It was a personal promise that she could make on behalf of herself and her president, but she could not be so clear about her country. For those looking for clues, it was a seemingly subtle change in wording that spoke volumes.
Neither Mr. Biden nor Ms. Harris can any longer promise with any degree of certainty that America is truly in the long-term fight with Ukraine. House Republicans are blocking $60 billion in security aid even as Ukrainian troops, lacking ammunition and weapons, have just had to withdraw from the city of Avdiivka. And an election in less than nine months could bring back to office former President Donald J. Trump, who is no friend of Ukraine or NATO but an open admirer of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.
Ms Harris did not try to duck the fight during her trip to Munich – on the contrary, she did everything she could to convince nervous Ukrainians and Europeans of her government’s resolve. But the reality is that political uncertainty at home has destabilized the multinational coalition backing Ukraine just days after the second anniversary of Mr Putin’s invasion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern. “The main issue for us now is maintaining key American support,” he said at a joint news conference with Ms. Harris. “Ukraine and all our warriors need and are waiting for the respective positive vote on the aid package, and I think everyone understands how much depends on this single voting process.”
Ms. Harris told him that there were still bipartisan majorities in both chambers of Congress for aid to Ukraine, even though Republicans in the House did not allow a vote. If the bill got to the House, she told him, she had no doubt it would pass, just as it had in the Senate.
“We must be steadfast and not play political games,” she said. “Political gameplay plays no role in the importance of standing by an ally when it endures unprovoked aggression.”
At least publicly, she would not entertain the idea that the government might need a Plan B. “There is only Plan A, which is to ensure that Ukraine gets what it needs,” she said.
But hardly anyone in Munich still had much faith in Plan A. The Europeans, who have just passed their own aid package, have heard American guarantees for months, only to find that nothing at all is guaranteed.
White House officials publicly and unofficially expressed their utmost confidence last summer that the aid would be approved. As recently as December, they dismissed doubters as modern-day Cassandras. Just a few days ago they believed it would probably pass.
But then Mr. Trump intervened and they seemed surprised. They still publicly express optimism that the aid will eventually pass, as Mr. Biden did when he called Mr. Zelensky from Delaware to reinforce Ms. Harris’ message, saying: “I’m confident that we can get this money.” will get,” as he said, the president then told reporters. But secretly, the arrogance of a few months ago has turned into deep concern.
In her speech at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, Ms. Harris placed more emphasis on addressing the audience at home than the leaders and diplomats in the room. She tried to make the case for why it is important to stand with Ukraine and stand up to Mr. Putin while Mr. Trump talks about encouraging Russia to attack NATO allies who are not paying their fair share.
“Imagine if America turned its back on Ukraine and abandoned our NATO allies and our treaty obligations,” she said. “Imagine if we went easy on Putin, let alone encouraged him. History offers a clue. If we watch an attacker invade their neighbor with impunity, they will continue.”
Her case was strengthened by a stunning turn of events. Shortly before she took the stage, she received news that Russian dissident Aleksei A. Navalny had died in one of Putin’s prisons. This news spread to the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, where the conference was taking place.
Nothing could better remind the audience of Mr. Putin’s ruthless rule, and Ms. Harris quickly added condemnation to her remark. However, she was almost chased off the stage after her speech, allowing Yulia Navalnaya, the dissident’s wife, to make a dramatic surprise appearance condemning Mr Putin and promising to bring him to justice.
Mr. Navalny’s death raised hopes among Biden administration officials that the shock would wake up House Republicans and force them to take action on aid. They were heartened to hear that Speaker Mike Johnson had issued a statement saying that the United States and its allies “must use every means available to disrupt Putin’s ability to finance his unprovoked war in Ukraine.” .
Like many in Washington, Ms. Harris has never met Mr. Johnson, the conservative backbencher from Louisiana who was suddenly named speaker a few months ago amid a rebellion by hard-line Republicans, and she was careful not to abandon him Lassen criticized her in her public comments on Saturday.
But some officials, annoyed by Republican criticism of Ukraine policy, worried they were reading too much into Johnson’s statement, especially given that the House has left Washington for a two-week recess. That means lawmakers will not return until the initial shock of Mr. Navalny’s death has worn off.
Perhaps less confidently, Mr. Zelensky reminded the conference in his own speech that “dictators don’t go on vacation.”
Ms. Harris’s meeting with Mr. Zelensky on Saturday in Munich brought the two back to where it began for them. They sat in the same room on the same bench across from the conference hotel where they first met almost two years ago to the day – five days before the Russians marched across the Ukrainian border.
At the time, Ms. Harris tried to persuade Mr. Zelensky to take seriously American warnings about impending Russian aggression. This time it was left to her to deliver the message that America would not give up its efforts, no matter what the politics at home were.
“You have demonstrated extraordinary courage and success on the battlefield,” she told him Saturday.
Mr. Zelensky, wearing a black sweater, appeared exhausted, the exhaustion of two years of war visible on his face. But he learned from the start to moderate his dealings with American benefactors. These were initially irritated that he never seemed grateful for anything they had done, and instead used meetings with the President and Vice President to go over lists of specific military equipment that he had required, the kind of details that usually left to the lower levels.
Mr. Zelensky, who appeared in Munich this time, was a leader who recognized that the flow of arms was no longer a given and who showered his public and private comments on Saturday with great praise.
“We are very grateful,” he said, “not just from me and my team, but especially from all of our people, we are grateful to you, the people of the United States, your society, the great society, and President Biden.” We are grateful for his team and of course the cross-party support.”
“But,” he continued quickly, “we need your unity now at such a difficult time for us.”
“And of course in the United States too” it is a “challenging time,” he added. “We understand everything.”
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2024-02-18 17:21:36
www.nytimes.com