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Falling birth rates will trigger a demographic shift with significant impacts on the global economy over the next 25 years, according to a new study.
By 2050, three-quarters of countries are expected to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per woman, according to a study published Wednesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
That would mean 49 countries – mostly in low-income regions in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia – responsible for the majority of new births.
“Future trends in fertility rates and live births will lead to shifts in global population dynamics, drive changes in international relations and the geopolitical environment, and highlight new challenges in migration and global support networks,” the report authors write in their conclusion.
By the year 2100, only six countries are expected to have population-replacement birth rates: the African countries of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and the Central Asian Tajikistan.
This changing demographic landscape will have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts, the report’s authors said.
In particular, labor force declines in advanced economies will require significant policy and fiscal interventions, even if technological advances provide some support.
“As the number of workers declines, the overall size of the economy will tend to fall, even if output per worker remains the same. Without a liberal migration policy, these countries will face many challenges,” Dr. Christopher Murray, one of the lead authors of the report and the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told CNBC.
“AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics can mitigate the economic impact of the workforce decline, but some sectors such as housing would continue to be severely affected,” he added.
Baby boom vs. bust
The report, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, did not provide any information on the specific economic impact of demographic change. However, a divergence became clear between high-income countries, where birth rates are steadily falling, and low-income countries, where it continues to rise.
From 1950 to 2021, the global total fertility rate (TFR) – or the average number of babies born to a woman – has more than halved, falling from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries became richer and women had fewer babies. This trend has been reinforced by social changes, such as increasing female labor force participation, and policies, including China’s one-child policy.
From 2050 to 2100, the global total fertility rate is expected to fall further from 1.83 to 1.59. The replacement rate – or the number of children a couple would have to replace themselves – is 2.1 in most developed countries.
This is despite the world population being expected to grow from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050, before peaking at around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to the United Nations.
In many advanced economies, birth rates are already well below replacement rates. By mid-century, the major economies of China and India are expected to be in this category, with South Korea’s birth rate at 0.82, the lowest in the world
Meanwhile, the proportion of new births in lower-income countries is expected to nearly double from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100, the report says.
Murray said this could put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to negotiate more ethical and fair migration policies – a lever that could become important as countries become increasingly exposed to the impacts of climate change.
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2024-03-22 08:45:15
www.cnbc.com
