This was the day that President Biden and his team had feared for more than three months, the day when relatively low-level attacks by Iranian proxy groups on American troops in the Middle East turned deadly, increasing pressure on the president to respond in kind.
With three American service members killed and two dozen others injured by a drone in Jordan, Mr. Biden must decide how far he is willing to go in terms of retaliation, at the risk of igniting a larger war he has been waging for tried to avoid October 1st. The terrorist attack on September 7th by Hamas triggered the current crisis in the Middle East.
So far, the president has carefully calibrated his response to the more than 150 attacks by Iranian-backed militias on American forces in the region since October 7. He essentially ignored the majority that were successfully intercepted or caused little to no damage while issuing limited authorizations. The U.S. attacks focused primarily on buildings, weapons and infrastructure after attacks that were more brazen, particularly against the Houthis Yemen who attacked ships in the Red Sea.
But the first deaths of American troops under fire require a different level of response, American officials said, and the president’s advisers agreed as they consulted with him via secure video conference on Sunday. It remained unclear whether Mr. Biden would strike targets in Iran himself, something his Republican critics urged him to do, saying he would be a “coward” if he didn’t, as one put it.
“The question Biden faces is whether he wants to simply respond to events in the region or whether he wants to send a larger message that seeks to restore a sense of deterrence that simply has not existed in the region for months more exists,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who served in national security positions under President Bill Clinton.
“I’m sure they’re looking for some kind of Goldilocks response here,” he added, meaning “not too hard” that it provokes a full-blown war, “not too soft” that it just prolongs the conflict, “but something.” that seems exactly right.”
Mr. Biden gave no details about his thinking but promised to respond in some way. “The three American soldiers we lost were patriots in the highest sense,” he said in a statement. He added: “We will strive to be worthy of their honor and bravery. We will continue their commitment to the fight against terrorism. And have no doubt: We will hold all those responsible accountable at a time and in a manner of our choosing.”
The attack in Jordan was not fundamentally different from what American forces had been experiencing for more than three months, except that it was more successful. Government officials and intelligence agencies tried to determine on Sunday whether this was a deliberate attempt by Iran to escalate the conflict or whether it was the same kind of limited attack that its proxies had carried out, but in this case by luck Americans were killed.
American officials have said for months that they do not believe Iran wants a direct war with the United States and did not publicly change that assessment on Sunday. But at the same time, officials said, Iran has used its proxy forces to maintain pressure on the United States and Israel as Israel continues to crack down on Hamas in Gaza.
A senior American official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, said Sunday that the United States did not believe Iran wanted to start a larger war with the attack in Jordan. But he warned that analysts are still collecting and evaluating available intelligence to determine whether Iran has ordered a more aggressive attack or whether a militia group has decided to do so.
While a major conflict could serve Iran’s goals, American officials have long assumed that Tehran understood that a direct war with the United States would cause great damage. The attack in Jordan came at a time when some American officials were discussing the idea that Iran could be close to containing some of its proxy forces, a theory that the attack in Jordan may have put paid to.
Mr. Biden’s decision is complicated by the possibility that an intensification of fighting with Iran could make it harder to end the fighting in Gaza. William J. Burns, the CIA director, met with Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials in Paris on Sunday to negotiate a deal in which Israel would halt its military campaign against Hamas for about two months in return for the release of More than 100 people hostages were seized on October 7th. The Biden administration is also trying to negotiate a separate deal to avoid a broader conflict between Israel and another Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah, based in Lebanon.
Republicans wasted no time on Sunday in blaming Mr. Biden for the deaths of troops in Jordan, claiming his failure to take more devastating action over the past three months has given Iran and its proxies confidence that they will remain unpunished could act.
“The whole world is now waiting for signs that the president is finally ready to use American strength to force Iran to change its behavior,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader. Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said flatly: “Now hit Iran. Hit them hard.”
Republicans argued that Mr. Biden had emboldened Iran by appeasing Tehran’s mullahs. They pointed to his efforts to negotiate a new deal with Iran to limit its nuclear weapons program and a deal that secured the release of five imprisoned Americans in return for giving Iran access to $6 billion of its own oil money Tehran had already been promised humanitarian aid, a policy enacted under former President Donald J. Trump. That money was frozen days after the October 7 attack by Iran-backed Hamas.
“He left our troops flat-footed, and now three are dead and dozens are injured, as sad as I have been predicting for months,” said Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas. “The only response to these attacks must be a devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and throughout the Middle East. Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander in chief.”
As for Mr. Trump, now the front-runner for the Republican nomination to challenge Mr. Biden for his old post, he claimed on social media Sunday: “This attack would NEVER have happened if I had been president, not even a chance “” Indeed, Iran and its proxies have attacked American and allied interests during Mr. Trump’s presidency, and at one point Mr. Trump called off a retaliatory strike that he considered excessive. He later ordered an attack that killed a senior Iranian general. But when Iran responded with missile attacks that injured but did not kill American troops, Trump ordered no further action.
Mr. Biden has ordered military strikes several times in recent months, including on Christmas Day. Just hours after a drone strike by Iran-backed militants injured three American service members, one critically, Mr. Biden ordered airstrikes in Iraq in response. He also ordered the U.S. military to target a militia commander believed responsible for the attack. American forces carried out the order on January 4 with a drone strike in Baghdad that killed commander Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al-Jawari.
So far, the only American military deaths in the region since October 7 have occurred not under fire, but during an operation in the Arabian Sea to interdict Iranian weapons from the Houthis. Two Navy SEALs were declared dead last week after one fell overboard and the other jumped in to try to save him. A civilian contractor in Iraq died in October after suffering a heart attack while seeking shelter from a feared drone attack that did not occur.
Mr. Biden was briefed on the attack in Jordan on Sunday morning in South Carolina, where he spent the weekend campaigning before the Democratic primary. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with the president, along with national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his deputy, Jon Finer.
Later in the day, Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris participated in a secure virtual discussion with Mr. Austin, Mr. Sullivan, Mr. Finer and other advisers, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken; Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence.
The president later addressed the matter during a visit to the Brookland Baptist Banquet Center in West Columbia, S.C
“We had a rough day in the Middle East last night,” he told the crowd. “We lost three brave souls in an attack on one of our bases.” After a moment of silence, he added, “We will respond.”
Julian Barnes and Helene Cooper contributed reporting.
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2024-01-29 03:36:55
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