President Biden will turn and look directly into the camera, ignoring his opponent and the moderators and speaking directly to voters. At least once.
Watch for Mr. Trump to grab the spotlight at every opportunity and bulldoze everyone on stage — including the anchors.
It has been nearly four years since either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden appeared on a debate stage. But there’s one place to predict their actions Thursday in Atlanta: Go back to the tapes.
The two men spent a total of 180 minutes sparring in 2020. The sessions were loud, combative, chaotic and often nasty – but they were also educational and suggested what styles and weaknesses might be re-emerging.
We rewatched both debates from 2020. (Twice!) Here’s a scouting report, if you will, a look at what to expect from the two prospects.
Donald J Trump
Attack, attack, attack
Mr. Trump will most likely approach every issue with an offensive. “Excuse me, he was there for 47 years — he didn’t do it,” Mr. Trump said at their second debate, as Mr. Biden spoke about protecting Americans from losing their health care.
Mr. Trump, at least in previous encounters, has not adhered to the traditional rules of debate — the rules that Mr. Biden and his moderators have adhered to for decades. His dominance and constant talking can be disruptive and turned the first debate of 2020 into something of a car crash. Mr. Trump’s quiet comments and corrections appeared designed to unsettle and distract his opponent.
However, the big question is to what extent Mr. Trump will be able to revive this combative style. At their second debate of 2020, the rules were changed due to Mr. Trump’s behavior at the first debate: the candidates’ microphones were only turned on when it was their turn to speak. The same rule also applies on Thursday.
“I think the microphone-off format lends itself to Trump being a more disciplined version of Trump than he was, at least in the first debate,” said Kate Bedingfield, a deputy campaign manager for Mr. Biden in 2020 who was preparing involved in the debate.
Facts, untruths and insults
Ask any traditional Republican what you want Mr. Trump to talk about and they will tell you his record in office. But Mr. Trump’s past debates suggest he won’t spend most of his time there.
In 2020, Mr. Trump devoted much of his time to a barrage of claims, some false, some not, and Don Rickles-style insults. (“There’s nothing clever about you, Joe.”) He also made accusations full of characters and obscure innuendos that were missed by many voters. (Did anyone really remember Sidney Blumenthal, the former Hillary Clinton adviser who was a recurring figure in Mr. Trump’s debates against Mrs. Clinton?)
A challenge for Mr. Biden will be deciding when to engage and when to ignore. Mrs. Clinton advised viewers to visit her website to see what Mr. Trump said live. Democrats agree it hasn’t been particularly effective.
Mr. Biden seized the moment to address Mr. Trump’s inaccuracies by addressing the audience directly. “Do you believe for a moment what he’s telling you, given all the lies he’s told you about the whole Covid issue?”
When in doubt, turn around
Trump will answer the questions he wants to answer – not necessarily the ones being asked. When asked in 2016 about the “Access Hollywood” video in which he bragged about grabbing women’s genitals, he dismissed it as locker room talk and segued into a discussion about ISIS, the Sunni terrorist group Militant, “cutting off heads.”
He could try to deter Mr. Biden by asking him to forego the position of an ally or apologize for something he said in the past. “You can’t even say the word law enforcement,” he told Mr. Biden when he asked him to say those words. “Because if you say those words, you will lose all your radical left supporters.”
Or Mr. Trump could try to put his opponent on the defensive by attacking a point he sees as vulnerable. In 2016, he brought up the sexual misconduct allegations against former President Bill Clinton as Mrs. Clinton spoke about episodes of sexual misconduct that had long shadowed Mr. Trump.
And in 2020, he leveled corruption allegations against Mr. Biden’s son Hunter, who was just convicted of three gun crimes in a trial that laid bare his problems with drug addiction.
President Biden
And now you’re starting again
Mr Biden tried in 2020 to disarm his opponent – and undermine the barrage of attacks and claims – by smiling broadly or laughing outright as Mr Trump spoke. Yet for all the smiles, Mr. Biden delivered the kind of cutting, ironic attacks that resonated after the debate.
When Mr. Trump repeatedly tried to link Mr. Biden to the policies of Bernie Sanders, the liberal senator from Vermont, Mr. Biden mocked him. “He’s a very confused guy, he thinks he’s competing against someone else. He’s running against Joe Biden.”
And as Mr. Trump repeatedly interrupted him during that first debate, Mr. Biden turned to moderator Chris Wallace in a moment of desperation: “Will he please be silent for a moment?” he said.
In both debates, Mr. Biden repeatedly turned away from his opponent to speak directly into the camera. “There’s a reason he’s bringing up all this nonsense,” he said on one of those occasions. “He doesn’t want to talk about the substantive issues. It’s not about his family and my family. It’s about your family, and your family is having a hard time.”
This was a very conscious decision on the part of Mr. Biden and his advisers at the start of the debate, and one that will likely come into play again: “The debate audience is watching on television,” Ms. Bedingfield said. “One of the best contrasts for Biden compared to Trump is his humanity and empathy.”
Play by the rules
A creation of the political establishment, Mr. Biden tries to play by the rules he grew up with over more than 40 years in Washington: He (mostly) answers questions, (mostly) sticks to deadlines, and he does Don’t interrupt the presenter (most of the time).
When Mr. Trump took the stage at his first debate, Mr. Biden greeted his opponent with a warm smile, as if they were two veteran local politicians opening a debate in a city council race: “How you doing, man?”
And if he plays by the rules, he can incite and provoke and try to unsettle his opponent in the most traditional way: by calling on Trump to release his taxes or accusing him of bungling the Covid pandemic.
“We are on the verge of a dark winter, a dark winter, and he has no clear plan,” Mr. Biden said.
“I don’t think we’re going to have a dark winter,” Trump replied.
Looking back can be a valuable way to predict the future. But it has been a long four years. The world has changed, the nation has changed, and these two men still have four more years of baggage and life lessons ahead of them. And it’s a good bet that the Biden and Trump debate teams have watched the same videotapes over the past few weeks and learned many of the same lessons.
Video research and production by Christina Kelso
Source link
2024-06-28 00:32:57
www.nytimes.com