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:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/GVLLFJ33XBDTHF2GEMJP4YQPXQ.JPG "Bulls vs. Heat prediction: Chicago a live dog on 2nd of back to back?")
Ahead of Saturday’s Eastern Conference NBA matchup in Chicago, we’re set to provide a Bulls vs. Heat prediction and best bet.
The Bulls are on the second night of a back-to-back after capturing a double-overtime win at home Friday night against the Timberwolves.
Meanwhile, the Heat arrive on extended rest having last played on Wednesday, which saw them secure a home win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Heat are 2.5-point road favorites with the total set at a measly 216.5 points. Those interested in the Bulls can take the points or +125 on the moneyline.
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Chicago Bulls +2.5 Points (-105)
Maybe it’s just because they’re playing a team on a back-to-back, but the Heat are very undeserving favorites here.
This season, Miami is a dismal 17-32-3 ATS when they’re listed as a favorite this season. Plus, irrespective of favorite or underdog status, head coach Erik Spoelstra’s side is 14-19-1 ATS when playing away from home this season.
The Bulls are 20-18 ATS when listed as an underdog and are 19-16 ATS when playing on their home floor.
Further, this is a Bulls side that won both head-to-head meetings against the Heat this season, both of which were played in Miami. So, even though they’re playing on short rest following a double-overtime game, the Bulls should absolutely give the Heat a challenge.
Even if you set aside those betting trends, the Bulls are unquestionably the better side both for the season and in recent games. Across the entire campaign, Chicago is 11th in adjusted net rating compared to 21st for Miami, which has played a slightly more difficult schedule.
Additionally, if you consider the fact the season-long defensive trends neutralize one another — Chicago is fifth in adjusted defensive rating this season, Miami is sixth, per dunksandthrees.com — the Bulls still possess an edge offensively as they’re three spots better than Miami in terms of adjusted offensive rating.
But, if you shrink the season-long sample down to each sides’ past five and 10 games, the Bulls come out on top as the better side.
Across their past five games, the Bulls are third in offensive rating, 15th in defensive rating and fifth in net rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Meanwhile, the Heat are ninth, 18th and 10th, respectively, in those three categories.
Expand that sample to consider each teams’ past 10 games, and bettors will find the Bulls are third in net rating while the Heat are 17th.
Given those metrics, it would be the Bulls or nothing for me in this one, especially when you add in they’re 10-7 straight up at home since the calendar turned to 2023.